Bath are worth a flutter to reach the Champions Cup semi-finals

What price an English club getting through to the first Champions Cup semi-finals? Don’t put your mortgage on it, but a mild flutter is another thing.

Of the four to make this weekend’s quarter-finals the best bet is probably Bath at Leinster. Mind you, that’s Bath as they played before Christmas when they went to Montpellier and Toulouse; not the side that looked out for the count after losing to Glasgow and then at home to Toulouse in the first two rounds.

Of 72 quarter-finals played, there have been only 18 away wins – a 75% success rate for the home side – but here’s another stat. Bath have won nine of their last 10 away games in Europe, and those two wins at Montpellier and Toulouse suggest they will go to the Aviva Stadium without the fear that often inhibits sides faced with the job of bucking history.

Dropping 35 points at home to Bath is about as bad as it’s ever got for Toulouse in Europe and, oddly, it came at a time when Mike Ford’s team were experimenting, trying to develop an already attacking game. They also have among them four guys – George Ford, Jonathan Joseph, Dave Attwood and Anthony Watson – with plenty to prove to Dublin crowds after being part of the England side which was “out-coached” by Joe Schmidt just a few weeks ago.

And that’s another point; this isn’t the Leinster side which Schmidt took to the Heineken titles of 2011 and 2012. In a first season under Matt O’Connor – a new coach with new ideas – they currently reside in a relatively lowly fifth spot in the Pro 12 league, and the Australian has a big problem in melding nine Ireland internationals back into his starting XV.

He would have loved to do it last week against Glasgow, but many of them – around a dozen were away with Ireland – were out on their feet after taking the Six Nations. As it was, the first 40 minutes against Glasgow suggested getting the job done this week would be an ask, even against a team making eight changes of its own.

Elsewhere, the capacity for surprise is there, but Clermont Auvergne are almost unbeatable at the Massif Central, where they take on Northampton on Saturday while Racing Métro look to be flying in the Top 14 and face Saracens on the back ofputting Saints away in style in their final pool game. Until then, Northampton would have fancied playing this first knockout round at home, but a consummate performance by Jamie Roberts – playing the way Warren Gatland and Wales seemingly can only dream of – ended those dreams.

Now Northampton head for Clermont, still second in the Top 14 despite being bumped by Stade Francais last weekend, and without George North. They have a pack which can stand up to the French, but Clermont have strength in depth and a bench which turns tight games.

Saracens blew their chances of a home tie with a lukewarm middle to their pool campaign, but go to Racing on the back of an upsurge in fortunes and a performance at Wembley which suggests they can be a handful for anyone, and that their wings, particularly Chris Ashton, ought not to be dismissed when Stuart Lancaster and Co go into conclave to discuss England’s World Cup squad.

At his best, Ashton was particularly dangerous when drifting up alongside a ball carrier, looking for the killer off-load. Against Harlequins he showed that he developed that skill to the benefit of others while retaining the pace to embarrass defences and which was too much when Quins gave him a yard.

The key is probably the man inside both Ashton and David Strettle, the veteran fly-half Charlie Hodgson, still probably the best passer in the Premiership and a guy who makes space around him. Owen Farrell has other qualities, but theSaracens attack is more than surviving in his absence and, behind Bath, they might have the best sniff of a semi-final chance.

Alas not Wasps. Considering they got into the competition through the backdoor they have done remarkably well and, in part, it was their performance in Dublin which suggests Leinster are beatable by Bath. However, Toulon going for a third title on the bounce makes their chances of winning highly unlikely.

Forget all that nonsense about Mourad Boudjellal returning the Bouclier de Brennus, the wooden shield given to the Top 14 champions. Letting an 18-0 lead slip away to go down to Toulouse before a record crowd at the Stade Velodrome in Marseille last weekend will be forgotten when Toulon appear at the more intimate setting of their own ground, the Stade Félix Mayol.

And there is a new threat for Dai Young and Wasps to worry about. In addition to all those galacticos bought in by Boudjellal, watch out for Josua Tuisova, a 21-year-old Fijian wing. Maxime Médard failed to show him due respect and finished up on his backside.